New crime data show vehicle theft in Victoria has risen dramatically compared with that in New South Wales (NSW), although recent figures suggest the trend may be starting to slow.
According to the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research and the Crime Statistics Agency, Victoria recorded 33,212 motor vehicle theft offences in the 12 months to September 2025. In the same period, NSW recorded 14,873 offences. The figures include both actual and attempted vehicle thefts.
Theft rates have widened sharply
Historically, Victoria’s vehicle theft rate was moderately higher than that of NSW. Between 2018 and 2023, thefts in Victoria averaged about 42% higher than in NSW.
However, the gap widened significantly in recent years. In 2024, Victoria recorded 76% more thefts than NSW, and in 2025, the gap expanded to 123% higher.
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Signs thefts may be declining
Despite the large difference between the states, monthly theft numbers in Victoria began falling between June and September 2025. Whether this downward trend has continued will become clearer when updated crime statistics are released in late March.
Technology increasingly used by thieves
Many modern vehicles are reportedly being stolen using electronic key reprogramming devices. These tools, often referred to as OBD devices, connect to a vehicle’s on-board diagnostics port, which is normally used by mechanics and locksmiths.
Once connected, the device can reprogram a new key, override the vehicle’s security system, and allow the car to be driven away without the original key. Police say as many as one in four stolen vehicles may now be taken using this method. Authorities warn that push-button start vehicles can be particularly vulnerable to this technology.
Recent arrests linked to electronic theft tools
Police have recently made several arrests connected to this type of vehicle theft. Recent cases include four men arrested in late February in connection with an alleged high-end car theft syndicate.
Multiple key reprogramming devices were seized during this investigation. An alleged serial offender charged earlier in the month was accused of stealing more than 25 vehicles.
Vehicles identified as more vulnerable
Victoria Police have identified several models that have been targeted more frequently by thieves using electronic key reprogramming tools. These cars include:
- Holden Commodore
- Toyota Corolla
- Toyota Hilux
- Toyota LandCruiser
- Toyota RAV4
- Toyota 86
- Toyota Camry
- Toyota Prado
- Subaru Impreza
- Subaru WRX
How drivers can protect their vehicles
Victoria Police recommends several preventative measures to reduce the risk of theft. This includes installing aftermarket anti-theft systems like OBD port locks and parking vehicles off-street where possible.
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